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...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL
OR TO CENTRAL/EASTERN WA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms, offering destructive
winds and hail, are most likely between 1 to 10 PM PDT over parts of
the interior Pacific Northwest, east of the Cascades.
...Interior Northwest...
Primary change is to increase tornado probabilities across parts of
central OR. Categorical outlook is largely unchanged. Consideration
was given for an upgrade to Moderate Risk in the western portion of
the Columbia Basin. Concerns over the spatial extent of the severe
wind coverage preclude further upgrading at this time.
Thunderstorms will likely intensify after 19Z in a zone of strong
deep lift across south-central OR, ahead of an ejecting shortwave
trough. Here, robust diabatic heating is underway amid a plume of
low to mid 50s surface dew points. This will support a narrow
corridor of modest buoyancy with MLCAPE reaching 750-1500 J/kg from
central to northeast OR. Greater buoyancy is expected to develop
towards 00Z farther downstream in eastern WA to northwest MT where
mean-mixing ratios are higher.
Surface-based effective-inflow parcels will exist on the west side
of the surface front, where low-level winds will be veering with
height, hodographs strongly curved, and deep shear relatively
maximized. With low-level vorticity also maximized in the frontal
zone, multiple supercells are expected. Though the environment
generally favors higher-based convection, initial supercells should
have the best potential for large hail and a couple tornadoes
between about 21-23Z. As the supercells spread rapidly
north-northeast, at peak boundary-layer heating over the Columbia
Basin, upscale growth into a forward-propagating MCS appears
probable. This will increase the potential for severe wind gusts,
some of which may be significant, given the favorable combination of
steep lapse rates and moderately large buoyancy. Overall setup
appears likely to yield a swath of severe wind in the Columbia Basin
from north-central OR across parts of central and eastern WA before
the MCS moves into British Columbia.
...Northern Rockies to central High Plains...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon near
the large-scale ridge, primarily over higher terrain. Convection
should spread slowly off the mountains in a loosely fan-shaped
pattern across the outlook corridor: to the north-northeast in the
ID/MT region, and east-southeast across the central High Plains.
Isolated severe is possible as the convection moves across a
marginally moist, but strongly heated boundary layer supporting
maintenance of hail/gusts to the surface. The lack of substantial
upper support and ridging-related weaknesses in low/middle-level
wind speed will be limiting factors to a greater severe risk.
...Carolinas/Southeast VA...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon over
portions of the Piedmont and coastal plain, moving east to
southeast. Weak winds through most of the troposphere will limit
organization of the severe threat. However, sporadic tree damage
from localized strong gusts will be possible.
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